These days it seems that all of the news about our environment
is bad news. Bad news about the disappearance of glaciers in
the Himalayas, bad news about rivers such as the Ganges that
are fed by glaciers and that may by mid-century turn into
seasonal streams, bad news about the health hazards of air
pollution right here at home. And worst of all, there is the
bad news that our political leaders are not only doing nothing
about these problems, they refuse to recognize the problems.
Good environmental news is rare. So,
I'm pleased to say that there is some, and it comes from
Silicon Valley. In fact, what I want to communicate here is
not so much news, although there is a news component to it,
but a realization drawn from this news. The news is that a
revolution in solar power technology has begun. The maker of
this news is a Silicon Valley company called Nanosolar that
has come up a with a way to produce solar panels 100 times
thinner and 100 times faster than anything we've seen before.
This, in solar technology terms, is
like the invention of the integrated circuit, which replaced
masses of individual transistors and paved the way for the
modern computerized world.
Here's the
realization, which hit me like a thunderbolt: We are in the
early stages of the commoditization of power generation.
Traditionally, power generation has been the exclusive
prerogative of big industry - big electric, big coal, big gas, etc. By way of analogy, we are in power terms where
computing was in the 1960s, when a computer took up an entire
building and when the number of computers in the world could
be numbered in the hundreds. The possibility now exists that
electricity generation could, like PCs, become a household
commodity.
Not surprisingly, Silicon
Valley is now getting excited about solar power. John Doerr of
Kleiner Perkins, the valley's biggest venture capital firm,
has taken to calling it Solar Valley. Why am I excited? Well,
once a means exists to commoditize power, and Nanosolar is
evidence that the means now do exist, the economic model for
power generation is no longer the one that governs today's
utilities but the one that governs today's personal computing
market.
With the hightechification -
pardon my neologism - of energy generation, we could possibly
even see a kind of Moore's Law come into play. Moore's Law is
the strikingly accurate prediction of Gordon Moore, the
founder of Intel, that the number of transistors in integrated
circuits would grow exponentially, doubling about every two
years.
The result of Moore's law is
that I'm now typing this commentary on a consumer Mac that is
substantially more powerful than the University of Utah's
supercomputer that I messed with as a student there in the
1970s. The prospect of that kind of production/technology
innovation brought to solar energy is certainly something a
venture capitalist would slaver over. That's why Kleiner
Perkins has invested in Nanosolar. That's why Google also is a
big investor.
This is a revolution as
fundamental to power generation as the integrated circuit was
to computing, or the assembly line to the making of cars and
everything else. Forward-looking communities will be putting
their investment money not in coal-fired power plants, but in
solar energy companies.
Thanks to the
Bush administration's backward-looking energy policy, dirty
coal and even dirtier nuclear energy have enjoyed an
unexpected recent boom. But enthusiasm for these, like that
for Bush himself, will fade, even in Utah. Communities that
can see the future coming will be tomorrow's leaders. Those,
like Ely, Nev., and Delta, Utah, that continue looking
backward will be tomorrow's also-rans. Which of these will
Salt Lake City be?
What forward-looking
communities see is a chance to get in on the power production
boom, not as consumers of dirty, increasingly expensive
coal-fired power, but as producers of their own clean power.
There is a solar silver lining in our
present environmental mess. It's a chance to reinvent
ourselves. Let's do it right this time.
---
* ED FIRMAGE,
JR. is a photographer living in Salt Lake City.
